Can the Stock Market Be Predicted? Here’s the Truth 股市能预测吗？真相是……
This is Suzhou Victory Textile Co., Ltd.
Can the stock market be predicted? Economists have debated this for decades. Let’s settle it.
1. A Paradox
You’ve heard both sides:
One says economists study prices all day—surely they know more than the average person.
The other says if economists could really predict the market, why are they still teaching? They’d all be billionaires.
Both make sense. So which is it?
2. How Asset Prices Are Set
We’ve covered this: the present value of an asset equals the discounted sum of its future income stream.
The key word? Expectation.
When expectations change, prices change. When expectations change is when prices change.
That gives us two worlds:
The physical world—trees grow, houses age, things follow physical laws.
The economic world—prices depend on one thing: whether expectations have shifted. If expectations don’t change, prices stay flat, forever.
3. What Changes Expectations?
Only one thing—new information.
What’s new information? Something you don’t know today but will know tomorrow. Since you don’t know it today, it must be a surprise.
So only surprising news changes asset prices.
An apple tree yields ten apples a year. A storm splits it in half. From now on, it yields five. The moment you learn this, the tree’s value drops—not next year when the fruit doesn’t come.
The release of news sets the rhythm of price changes. New news comes, prices move. No news, prices sit still.
4. Why Price Movements Are Random
Because news itself is random.
On September 18, 2013, at 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve was set to announce a major policy. At exactly 2:00, the news went out.
Chicago markets reacted a few milliseconds faster than New York.
News travels to New York in two milliseconds, to Chicago in seven. Normally, New York reacts first. That day, Chicago did. The Fed later investigated whether the news had leaked.
A few milliseconds—that’s how long it takes to digest a piece of news. By the time you’re home, showered, dinner warmed, TV on—it’s ancient history.
5. So, Can the Market Be Predicted?
Yes and no.
You can study how things work—a tree split in half, experts can calculate future yield. That uses science.
But when news will arrive and what it will be? You never know. So price changes are random, unpredictable.
That’s why people make money studying fundamentals, but no one makes money predicting tomorrow’s ups and downs.
6. What Does This Mean for You?
First, ignore stock commentators. By the time you hear it, prices have already adjusted.
Second, don’t trust “inside information.” If it’s truly inside, by the time it reaches you, it’s already priced in.
Third, focus on what matters—study businesses, industries, patterns. Those are things you can actually do something about.
At Suzhou Victory Textile, after years in this business, we know one thing: you can forecast the weather, but no one knows which way tomorrow’s wind will blow. Instead of guessing the wind, build a better sail.
无用方为大用，经济学里悟商道。你好！这里是苏州维特瑞纺织。
股市到底能不能预测？这个问题，经济学家吵了几十年。今天我们把这事说透。
一、一个悖论
你肯定听过两种说法：
一种说，经济学家天天研究价格，肯定比别人知道得多一点。
另一种说，要是经济学家真能预测股市，他们还教书干什么？早就成亿万富翁了。
两种说法都有道理。那到底能不能预测？
二、资产价格是怎么定的
我们之前讲过：一份资产的现值，等于它未来收入流的折现和。
关键在哪里？在“预期”二字。
预期变了，价格就变。预期什么时候变，价格就什么时候变。
这就引出了两个世界：
一个是真实世界——树会结果，房子会折旧，事物按物理规律变化。
另一个是经济世界——价格只取决于一件事：预期有没有变。预期不变，价格就是一条直线，永远不动。
三、什么能改变预期？
只有一样东西——新的知识。
什么叫新的知识？就是今天不知道、明天才知道的信息。既然今天不知道，那它一定是意外。
所以，只有意外的消息，才能改变资产的价格。
苹果树每年结十个苹果。昨晚一场暴风雨，劈掉了一半。这棵树以后每年只能结五个。你什么时候知道这个消息，它什么时候贬值——不是等到明年结果的时候。
消息披露的过程，决定了价格变化的节奏。新消息出来，价格就变；没有新消息，价格就不动。
四、价格波动为什么是随机的？
因为消息披露本身是随机的。
2013年9月18日下午两点，美联储要宣布重大货币政策。消息两点整发出。你知道芝加哥市场的反应比纽约快了几毫秒吗？
消息传到纽约要两毫秒，传到芝加哥要七毫秒。正常情况下，纽约应该比芝加哥快。但那一次芝加哥更快——事后美联储专门成立委员会调查，是不是消息提前走漏了。
几毫秒，消化一条消息的时间只需要几毫秒。等你下班、洗澡、热饭、打开电视听股评——黄花菜都凉了。
五、所以，股市能预测吗？
能，也不能。
事物发展的规律可以研究——苹果树被劈一半，专家能算出少结多少果。这个过程用了科学知识。
但消息什么时候来、是什么消息——你永远不知道。所以价格的变化是随机的，不可预测的。
这就是为什么有人能靠研究基本面赚钱，但没人能靠预测明天涨跌发财。
六、对我们有什么用？
第一，别听股评。等你听到的时候，价格已经反应完了。
第二，别信“内幕消息”。真是内幕，你听到的那一刻，已经是过去时。
第三，把精力放在真正重要的事上——研究企业、研究行业、研究规律。这些才是你说了算的东西。
我们苏州维特瑞纺织，做了这么多年面料，最懂一个道理：天气可以预报，但明天的风往哪吹，没人说得准。与其猜风向，不如把帆做好。
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Suzhou Victory Textile Co., Ltd. （苏州维特瑞纺织有限公司）is located in Changshu city(belongs to Suzhou District) Jiangsu,China. 80 Kilometers away from Shanghai Port.
Our team has been working in textile over 18 years.Our mainly products are Tie dyed Fabric,Velour/Velvet,Quilt Fabric,Jacquard Fabric,Single Jersey, Pique,Rib Fabric,Bird Eyes/Mesh Fabric, Interlock, French Terry/Fleece, Polar Fleece, Coral Fleece, Flannel Fleece, PV Plush, Sherpa Fleece,Coarse Needle Fabric etc Fabrics.
Compositions include Polyester,Cotton,Spandex/Lycra,Nylon/Polyamide,Rayon/Viscose,Modal/Tencel,Bamboo,Arcylic,Soybean,Wool,Flax/Linen,etc.
Functional Fabric:Sportswear Fabric(Coolmax,Coolpass,Coolplus,X-dry,Cooldry,Feelcool Ice,Topcool,Sorona,Supplex etc.),Waterproof,Fireproof(Aramid,Polyimide),Heat(Thermolite),Antibiosis(Sanitized),Uvioresistant,Radiation-proof,Recycle,BCI,Organic,Pima/Supima etc Fabrics.
We also have invested a home textiles & garments factory where we move our fabrics to sew many kinds of Garments, blankets etc.
Our marketing team and QC department are checking all the day in every process and keep close contact with customers to make sure customer knows every stage of the production. All the fabrics and blankets are inspected by our QC before packaging and shipping. Also we can provide some certifications Such as Oeko-Tex standard 100, SGS, Intertek etc.
We have production capability 5000 tons of various type of fabrics annually.Our products are mainly transported to China, southeast Asia, Middle East, Europe and America etc.